In lieu of our regularly-scheduled event preview, we hope you enjoy this following rundown of potential Championship scenarios as well as bring you up to speed on the status of each Pro division. This list was produced by AMSOIL Championship Off-Road series officials.
For the Sportsman Championship scenarios, please stay tuned. These scenarios will become more concrete after Thursday and Friday’s portion of the program.
We would like to take this opportunity to honor the following Champions who had clinched their respective titles in Bark River earlier this month:
- Pro Buggy: Jordan Bernloehr
- Pro Lite: Trey Gibbs
PRO4
Mathematically in the fight: CJ Greaves and Jimmy Henderson (-23)
- If Henderson qualifies fastest (and gains 5 points):
- Scenario 1a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 9 spots behind Henderson
- Scenario 1b: Henderson wins if: finish 10 spots ahead of CJ, or lead at halfway and finish 9 spots ahead
- If CJ qualifies fastest (and gains 5 points)
- Scenario 2a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 13 spots behind Henderson
- Scenario 2b: Henderson wins if: finish 14 spots ahead of CJ, or lead at halfway and finish 13 spots ahead
- If neither CJ nor Henderson qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 3a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 11 spots behind Henderson to win
- Scenario 3b: Henderson wins if: finish 12 spots ahead of CJ, or lead at halfway and finish 11 spots ahead to win
PRO2
Mathematically in the fight: Mickey Thomas, Ryan Beat (-37), Kyle Greaves (-44)
- Scenario 1: If Thomas qualifies fastest, he will only need to take the green flag in Rd 13 (Assumes 24 trucks or fewer)
- If Beat qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 2a: Thomas wins if: finish no worse than 15 spots behind Beat to win
- Scenario 2b: Beat wins if: finish 16 spots ahead of Thomas, or lead at halfway and finish 15 spots ahead to win
- Scenario 2c: Greaves wins if: lead at halfway and finish 21 spots ahead of Thomas and 6 spots ahead of Beat to win
- This scenario relies on having 22+ trucks
- If Greaves or another driver qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 3a: Thomas wins if: finish no worse than 18 spots behind Beat to win
- Scenario 3b: Beat wins if: finish 19 spots ahead of Thomas AND 1 spot ahead of Greaves or lead at halfway and finish 18 spots ahead of Thomas AND 2 spots ahead of Greaves to win
- Scenario 3c: Greaves wins if: top qualifier AND leads at halfway AND finishes 2 spots ahead of Beat AND 20 spots ahead of Thomas
AMSOIL Pro SxS
Mathematically in the fight: CJ Greaves, Jeb Bootle (-25), Andrew Carlson (-32)
- If CJ qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 1a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 14 spots behind Bootle AND no worse than 19 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 1b: Bootle wins if: earn at least one halfway bonus point AND finish 15 spots ahead of Greaves AND no worse than 3 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 1c: Carlson wins if: earn at least one halfway bonus point AND finish 19 positions ahead of CJ AND 4 positions ahead of Bootle
- If Bootle qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 2a:CJ wins if: finish no worse than 10 spots behind Bootle AND no worse than 16 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 2b: Bootle wins if: earns at least one halfway bonus point AND finish 10 spots ahead of Greaves AND no worse than 6 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 2c:Carlson wins if: earns at least one halfway bonus point AND finish 16 spots ahead of CJ AND 6 spots ahead of Bootle
- If Carlson qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 3a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 12 spots behind Bootle AND 13 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 3b: Bootle wins if: finish 13 spots ahead of CJ AND anywhere ahead of Carlson
- Scenario 3c:Carlson wins if: finish 14 spots ahead of CJ AND 2 spots ahead of Bootle (or earn a bonus point and finish 1 spot ahead of Bootle)
- If anyone else qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 4a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 12 spots behind Bootle AND no worse than 15 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 4b: Bootle wins if: finish 13 spots ahead of CJ and no worse than 3 spots behind Carlson
- Scenario 4c: Carlson wins if: earn at least one bonus point AND finish 16 spots ahead of CJ AND finish 4 spots ahead of Bootle
Pro Stock SxS
Mathematically in the fight: CJ Greaves, Jeb Bootle (-38), Owen Van Eperen (-46)
- Scenarios assume 20 car field; 18 drivers have raced Pro Stock this year–if 15 or fewer show up, CJ is the champion outright. (Scenario 1)
- If CJ qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 2a: CJ wins if: takes green flag/no DQ
- Scenario 2b: Without larger field, Bootle and Owen are eliminated in this scenario
- If Bootle qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 3a: CJ wins if: finish no worse than 16 spots behind Bootle
- Scenario 3b: Bootle wins if: finish 17 spots ahead of Greaves
- Scenario 3c: Barring DQ/no-shows for Bootle and Greaves, Owen is effectively eliminated if Bootle qualifies first
- If Owen/anyone else qualifies fastest:
- Scenario 4a: CJ wins if: finishes no worse than 18 spots behind Bootle AND Bootle earns no bonus points at halfway
- Scenario 4b: Bootle wins if: finishes 19 spots ahead of CJ AND no worse than 1 spot behind Owen
- Scenario 4c: Owen wins if: qualifies first AND wins AND leads at halfway AND Greaves finishes 20th AND Owen beats Bootle by 2 positions
Pro Spec
Mathematically in the fight: Dylan Parsons, Nick Visser (-29)
- 11 trucks expected for Crandon. 12 are needed for Visser to have mathematical shot
- If Parsons or anyone who ISN’T Visser qualifies first:
- Scenario 1: Parsons wins by taking green
- If Visser qualifies first:
- Scenario 2a: Visser wins ONLY if: wins race AND leads at halfway AND Parsons finishes 12th (or worse)
- Scenario 2b: Parsons wins if any other result happens
Be there to witness every lap of the AMSOIL Championship Off-Road season finale at Crandon International Raceway for the Polaris World Championships. For event information and tickets, click here. For more information on how to view, click here.
